With the Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 wrapping up on November 11, major news outlets have released their exit poll predictions — and most point to a clear edge for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). However, one survey has surprised everyone by projecting a win for the INDIA bloc instead.
According to Mint, most exit polls suggest the NDA, which includes the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United), could secure anywhere between 133 and 167 seats in the 243-member assembly.
In contrast, the opposition INDIA bloc, which comprises the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and other regional allies, is projected to win between 73 and 102 seats, as reported by Times Now and News18
However, Journo Mirror released a sharply different prediction, suggesting the INDIA bloc may actually have the upper hand. According to their data, the alliance is expected to win 130–140 seats, while the NDA could settle around 100–110 seats. The survey also gave smaller parties, including Jan Suraaj Party and AIMIM, between 0–4 seats collectively.
Other exit polls, including those by ABP News-CVoter and India TV-CNX have largely aligned with the trend showing an NDA majority.
Experts and political analysts are urging caution in reading too much into the projections. Bihar has a history of surprising results that differ from exit poll predictions as seen in 2015 and 2020. The final vote count will be announced on November 14, 2025, which will ultimately decide whether the NDA’s dominance continues or if the INDIA bloc stages a comeback.