MUMBAI : In its latest Economic Outlook report for FY27, titled “The Audacity of Fleeting Hope,” SBI Research has projected India’s GDP to grow at 6.8% for the 2026-27 fiscal year. The report highlights that India has entered the current period of global geopolitical conflict from a position of strength, supported by robust domestic consumption, infrastructure investment, and a resilient services sector
Key Highlights of the Report:
Growth Resilience: Despite global uncertainties and regional conflicts, India remains a bright spot. SBI Research forecasts India’s GDP growth in the range of 6.8%–7.1% for FY27
. Geopolitical Headwinds: The report cautions that the ongoing war in the Persian Gulf has disrupted global supply chains, impacting the availability of critical components like Helium, Methane, and LNG. Crude oil prices are expected to remain around $90 per barrel until supply-side constraints ease
. Banking Sector Strength: The Indian banking sector enters FY27 with a strong foundation, characterized by the lowest Non-Performing Assets (NPAs) in a decade, well-capitalized buffers, and improved profitability. The report notes that Return on Assets (RoA) for Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) is expected to sustain in the range of 1.35%–1.40%
. Climate Risks: A potential “Super El Niño” remains a key risk factor. The report warns that a weaker-than-normal monsoon could pose challenges to food security and inflation, though diversified agricultural activities (allied sectors) are expected to provide some cushion to the overall GVA (Gross Value Added)
. Monetary Outlook: With a growth-inflation paradox in play, the report suggests a ‘lower-for-longer’ interest rate regime may continue, as the RBI maintains a status quo until the full impact of global conflicts and climate patterns becomes clear
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According to the report, while the global economy faces a slowdown, India’s strategic focus on infrastructure and strong domestic demand positions it to leverage green shoots in the global value chain.