MUMBAI — SBI Research today released its latest Ecowrap report (Issue #17, FY27), projecting India’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of FY27 (Q1 FY27) at approximately 8.0%. This projection significantly exceeds the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) estimate of 7.0%. Powered by a Dynamic Factor Model tracking 54 high-frequency indicators, the analysis reveals broad-based economic momentum, with 86% of the tracked indicators showing growth acceleration in Q1 FY27 compared to 69% in the same period last year.
The report highlights strong resilience across core economic sectors, supported by robust domestic consumption, industrial activity, and a thriving services segment. High-frequency indicators such as passenger vehicle sales, electricity demand, and consumer credit continue to demonstrate strong upward trends. Central government capital expenditure also provided substantial momentum, expanding by 23.7% Year-on-Year. Furthermore, Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) maintained robust credit growth at 17.7%, alongside a broad-based improvement in asset quality across public and private sector banks.
Looking ahead, early indicators for July and improving monsoon conditions signal continued growth momentum into Q2 FY27. Despite a sluggish start in June, July rainfall and positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions have substantially reduced the nationwide rainfall deficit. On the macroeconomic front, SBI Research noted that the Indian Rupee has stabilized around Rs 95–95.5/$ following recent volatility. The report emphasizes the critical role of clear, calibrated policy signaling and strategic intervention from the RBI to curb excessive exchange rate volatility and maintain overall financial stability.
