MUMBAI — State Bank of India (SBI) Research today released its Pre-MPC Research Report ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for August 3–5, 2026. According to the report, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is most likely to keep policy rates unchanged despite India's domestic growth trajectory remaining robust.
India’s Q1 FY27 GDP growth is projected to surpass expectations, reaching approximately 7.0%, up from the RBI’s previous projection of 6.6%. This growth momentum is supported by strong performance in key high-frequency economic indicators. Capital inflows totaling $35 billion through July end have allowed foreign exchange reserves to recoup by $12.5 billion. Additionally, a recovery in July monsoon rains has significantly reduced the nationwide rainfall deficit.
However, the report highlights an uncertain global backdrop marked by the West Asia crisis, rising global trade restrictions, and slowing growth in major economies like the United States. Domestically, CPI inflation is projected to hover around 5.0% over the next two quarters, driven by imported inflation pressures. Given these external risks, currency pressures, and oil price volatility, SBI Research anticipates that the MPC will maintain a guarded stance without delivering an explicitly dovish message.
